Here are the predictions from The 9513. These guys are pretty in tune with the country scene. Remember that Matt actually predicted the Josh Turner and Carrie could be among the next to be inducted into the Opry. And that was over a year ago.
Use the link below to see the breakdown of the panels votes are at the end of the article. All 4 picked Carrie to win TFV.
It’s the old versus the new in the 43rd Annual ACM Awards.
This doesn’t mean that it’s the traditionalists versus the pop stars, which would make for an interesting showdown. Rather, it’s what happens to awards shows when eligibility criteria are too liberal and not enough good music has been released in the past year: mediocre but current work competes with good work that many have forgotten, and that makes the awards very hard to handicap.
This reality is most evident in the Album of the Year category. Fifth Gear, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend and Just Who I Am: Poets and Pirates are all mediocre to good albums released since the last ACM Awards, while If You’re Going Through Hell and Taylor Swift were eligible for nomination at the 42nd Annual ACM Awards. So why weren’t those albums nominated the last time around, when it would have made more chronological sense?
The answer is rather an indictment of the awards show process and helps to explain why it’s so difficult to prognosticate. A good album is a good album, regardless of whether it’s the 42nd or the 43rd ACM Awards, but a bestselling album at the 43rd ACM Awards was not necessarily bestselling at the 42nd. The extra year has made a difference only in the number of hit singles that each album has spawned and the number of copies that they have sold, and thus I can only conclude that in this category especially, the Academy hasn’t made a serious attempt to assess musical merit; they’ve simply noticed two albums that have had massive radio success and inferred that they must be great.
Thus, I can’t get my head around the Album category. The Brad Paisley and Miranda Lambert efforts stand heads and shoulders above the rest in terms of quality (and, if the 2007 critics’ lists are any indication, Lambert’s would certainly win easily among cross-genre voters), and I have to think that some voters have “forgotten” Taylor Swift’s and Rodney Atkins’ projects, but I can’t get past the fact that they were nominated a year late.
There’s a similar problem in the Vocal Event of the Year category. If this show were held six months earlier, I think that “Find Out Who Your Friends Are” would win in a walk. But this song, along with “What You Give Away” and “’Til We Ain’t Strangers Anymore” have been more or less absent from radio playlists for some time, so I expect that “Shiftwork,” easily the worst of the nominees, will win due to timeliness and star power. Still, I can’t rule out the possibility that voters will remember the more deserving nominees.
The Top New Male Vocalist and Top New Vocal Group or Duo categories are equally anachronistic. In one you have Jack Ingram, a Texas veteran whose brief mainstream radio run may be over, competiting against two true newcomers, while in the other, a duo that has already broken up (The Wreckers) is competiting against a group (Lady Antebellum) that hadn’t even released its debut album at the time that the nominations came out. In this case, the ACM’s glut of new artists categories is more culpable than the idiosyncracies of the awards show process, but it makes the categories rather bizarre nonetheless.
All of this makes this year’s awards difficult to predict, but the editors of The 9513 have done our best.
In the Entertainer of the Year category, the editors disagree about whether the introduction of fan voting will finally give Rascal Flatts the trophy that they so covet, but everyone except Jim thinks the Brad Paisley will follow up on his CMA win with the ACM Top Male Vocalist Award and everyone expects that Carrie Underwood will fend off Taylor Swift to defend her Top Female Vocalist Award. The Song of the Year and Single of the Year categories cause some disagreement: we think that “Don’t Blink” and “Stay” are the top contenders, but we aren’t sure who will win what.
The only way to find out is to tune into the 43rd Annual ACM Awards, Sunday at 7 p.m. central on CBS. While you’re watching, visit The 9513 for our live blog and join in the discussion. Insightful commentary, witty asides and engaging reader discussion is promised.
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Yeah, Carrie has to win and I agree 182% on what they said about the Vocal Event Category...
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3/18/09 - All I can say about tonight is that for the first time I really want Carrie's music to continue progressing more to the traditional side of country music and I think it will. I don't care if it doesn't sell as well or all go #1, it's beautiful with Carrie's voice. Tonight I saw her as a Country legend for the first time.
What's wierd about their female vocalist award predition is the "Carrie will fend off Taylor" comment. IMO, it wasn't Taylor Carrie had to fend off, I always thought it would be any of the others besides Taylor. But, that's just me.
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I think these guys are kinda saying what most country fans think, but I didn't know they trashed CR, cause I can't see why they would not think it's a good album. Also, they didn't mention who they thought woudl win duo. I'm hoping Sugarland pulls another win there.
I admit I hated these guys after they trashed CR in their review-- but I am loving them now.
Your comments crack me up. Keep posting. Thanks.
I'm also psyched because I want Carrie to win FVOTY, especially since that is the only award she is nominated for. Carrie surely is dynamic. I can hardly wait for the ACM's.
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All I hope for in tomorrow night's show is that Carrie will walk away with Top Female Vocalist and NOT Taylor. Because based on the 2007 calendar (which didnt include OUr Song until the VERY VERY END), Carrie was on fire and Taylor was just being noticed. Think about it!!!! In January of 07 people were still going "Whos Taylor Swift?"! I know I was! That all counts! Carrie should win and Im pretty positive that she will win, because she has had the bigger year AND has the bigger label that will vote for her. And I also want Brad Paisley to win Male Vocalist, and would LOVVVEEE to See Keith get EOTY but I bet you Kenny or Rascal Flatts will (its the fan voting thing.) . Well yeah anyway GO CARRIE!!!! I havemy fingers crossed!
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can't wait..go carrie!
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What's wierd about their female vocalist award predition is the "Carrie will fend off Taylor" comment. IMO, it wasn't Taylor Carrie had to fend off, I always thought it would be any of the others besides Taylor. But, that's just me.
I agree. The way this is written, it makes it sound like TS is the main competition. That's scary.
However, I sometimes wonder if these critics ever hear the difference between the recorded singing and the live singing. If a critic has only heard TS sing via her recordings, she is good. Good doesnt mean that she has Carrie's vocal skills but her recorded songs are not bad. Like any singer, it's just a different sound that some like and some don't.
The music industry has many singers that are only good on their recordings. Some have had fantastic careers. So, when it comes to awards, do they judge on the recorded music or the live version or both. We don't know as it's a voters call. If you are a judge, and all you have heard is the recorded version, then you will have a different perspective. Some judges may not care what it sounds like live since it's the recorded version that sells and is played on radio.
It makes you think and it may be a factor that ends up causing upsets at award shows.
Carrie should win easily but when it comes to people voting, you never know.
However, I sometimes wonder if these critics ever hear the difference between the recorded singing and the live singing. If a critic has only heard TS sing via her recordings, she is good. Good doesnt mean that she has Carrie's vocal skills but her recorded songs are not bad. Like any singer, it's just a different sound that some like and some don't.
you bring up a very good point. one of the supposed criteria is live performances, but i wonder if all the voters have seen all the nominees for EOTY, MVOTY and FVOTY live in concert? my guess will actually be 'no'.
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enough happiness to keep you sweet;
enough trials to keep you strong;
enough success to keep you eager;
enough faith to give you courage;
and enough determination to make each day a good day!"
The voters have atleast seen some of the nominees live on television.
That is probably true but we cannot be sure that ALL voters have seen all the candidates singing live. Even if a voter has seen a live performance, it's still only one of the factors they consider. Voters can choose to put more weight on other factors like sales and radio play. Being a voter is a fickle business and some prejudice and lack of full awareness of the facts can also enter the picture. So, my point, is that some critics seem to think TS is in the running for FVOTY so it can almost be a given that some voters see it that way as well. I'm not too worried but when I see articles like this, it adds some concern. I'll have to put my faith in the ACM voters and hope the majority know the facts.
I havemy fingers crossed!
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