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Thread: 2016 ACMs

  1. #1
    Carrie Guru
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    2016 ACMs

    might as well start fretting over this :-)

    voting timeline came out today

    The ballot timeline for professional members is as follows:
    Nomination Round Ballot Opens – Wednesday, December 2, 2015
    Nomination Round Ballot Closes – Wednesday, December 9, 2015
    Second Round Ballot Opens – Monday, January 11, 2016
    Second Round Ballot Closes – Tuesday, January 19, 2016
    Final Round Ballot Opens – Monday, March 7, 2016
    Final Round Ballot Closes – Monday, March 14, 2016

  • #2
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    You are right we might as well start fretting here. I've always thought there wasn't enough worrying and fretting here, way too calm.

  • #3
    Ultimate Carrie Fan Farawayhills's Avatar
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    Carrie's new album, and its tracks, will have had time to settle well into people's awareness by then. I'm not a singles person, but I presume, by the final round, the label will be on at least her second, if not her third, radio single. I think "Smoke Break" showed a significant stylistic shift - and I'd be interested to see the extent to which the album as a whole shows a comparable progression. If it does, the "fretting" will presumably focus on whether the voters are recognizing that shift and rewarding it - or whether there really is a permanent problem, which outweighs any consideration of the actual work she's producing.

    I'm one who does believe that, while the work itself is never the only consideration, it does play a significant part - especially in the area of building up voting support from the diverse categories of independent voters, who can, potentially, provide a counter-balance to the votes of people directly linked to the big music corporations. The virtual six year shut-out suggests to me that Carrie's work has not been able to unify enough support to provide much of a grass roots counter-balance - otherwise, I feel, she would have figured in some of the awards, even if Music Row interests felt that she didn't need the "top" awards to sustain her career momentum.

    Carrie's wins seem, chronologically, to have come mainly on the impact of her strong singles from the "Some Hearts" era, and to have stopped soon after. However regretable, that does strike me as conforming to two thing that don't seem totally inexplicable. Firstly, big commercial success seems, historically, to have most impact on voters if the artist achieves it quickly in their break-out years. After that, it seems less important. Fans often argue that the awards should continue to be decided on "numbers" - but whatever the merits of that argument, it doesn't seem to apply consistently in practice. Women, in particular, in Country Music seem to carry an extra burden of expectations, that they should bear the stylistic "soul" of the genre. The awards record shows several prominent examples of women who were commercially very successful, but were conspicuously not showered with Country awards - usually raising the suspicion that they were considered stylistically too focused on general music. Despite her genre loyalty, I think much of Carrie's work may have been seen in the same light.

    The second reason for the early awards may have been that the early singles were also among Carrie's strongest - JTTW,a faith based song (which actually showed Country Music styling, rather than the more "Contemporary Christian" Pop styling of many of the others , until SITW); -- DFTRM, a gentler, emotional, and confessional song, with a strong "leaving home" message, (which was also one of the most roots-based songs that was ever released from her as a single); -- BHC, a musically and vocally unusual empowerment anthem, with striking lyrics and a punchy, believable delivery (which more than any other, probably became Carrie's career-defining hit); -- and W, a "power ballad", with memorable lines and soaring emotional chorus (which established Carrie in the line of her Nashville Sound predecessors.) Put together, these singles showed an artist of considerable reach and originality.

    I know I'm going to be unpopular for saying so - but I honestly can't see much in the CR and PO era singles that would have been particularly likely to unify support among the musicians, songwriters, engineers, and bloggers who are likely to make up the more independent and less company oriented sectors of the several thousand voting pool. However popular these songs undoubtedly were with fans, radio, and the general public - I don't see many of them having wide ranging appeal among different groups of Country Music specialists, who might have made a difference in the overall vote. (Hearing them strung together on the Greatest Hits album, without the balance of their other album tracks, reinforced that feeling for me - making me very aware of a prevailing general music feel and influence).

    I think the BA era was a considerable progression for Carrie - and it certainly annoys me that it was not more recognized - but I think a stereotyped impression may have become rather entrenched by then. It is my hope that the new album will be her best yet, and will be too strong to be ignored.

    We're talking specifically here about the ACM, which has generally been more favourable to Carrie (and to Miranda, who gained most of her album wins here, and more often loses her CMA nominations). Historically, the ACM has been a little less influenced by Music Row, kinder to artists with a South-Western background, and arguably a little more progressive in its musical choices.

    It's still possible (and by some accounts, even likely) that Carrie will win FVOTY at the CMA - but, in any case, the timing of the album makes the ACM potentially the more favourable ground. I may well be proved wrong (and those who think its better to go with worst-case caution, and, if possible, be pleasantly surprised, may be on surer ground) - but even if it doesn't win, if Storyteller does prove to be her best yet, that is what most people will remember and applaud.

  • #4
    Huge Carrie Follower Momin's Avatar
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    ^Wish there was a love button for this post.

  • #5
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    So heres the exact description for Entertainer and Female so we can start comparing.... range of Nov.27th 2014- Nov 25th 2015. HeartBeat (add date was 11/30), and the Storyteller tour is NOT included at 2016.... Little Toy Guns, and Smoke Break are included as is the Storyteller Album for 2016

    Entertainer
    -radio Success
    -Music sales
    - Success of Music Video
    - Vocal Performance
    - Live Concert Sales
    - Artistic Merit
    - Appearances of TV
    - Appearance in Film
    - Songwriting
    - Success in Digital Media
    - Contributions to the Country Music Industry

    Female
    - Radio Success
    - Music sales
    - Digital Media
    - Live Concert
    - Vocal Performances

    The only difference from EOTY and Female basically is TV/Film appearance, songwriting, Merit, and Music Videos I believe Carrie is no question better in those things that Miranda. Miranda been practically hiding since the divorce which falls for half of the voting period. Carrie had her son, but always remained on the scene for the majority of the time and with promo from the album I think should give it to her, now lets see the voters if they do it correctly.
    teesharky likes this.

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    DO we have any info on the submissions given that they are due on Wednesday, I would assume

    EOTY
    FVOTY
    AOTY- Storyteller
    ROTY- LTG or SB
    SOTY- LTG or SB
    MVOTY- LTG or SB

    Given the Grammy voters favor of LTG over SB I think they might go for LTG for the ACM's in Record, Song and Video

  • #7
    Obsessed Carrie Fan tgbrinker's Avatar
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    Keeping my hopes low.

    My prediction: Carrie gets a nomination Female Vocalist and for Music Video of the Year - Little Toy Guns.

    That's it.

  • #8
    Carrie Fans Legend countryfan2006's Avatar
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    I hope she attends and performs and it will be 3 years since she last performed on the ACM's..

  • #9
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    For the country crowd, I would think SmB might be the better choice for song/record nominee. LTG is a "typical" Carrie pop-rock country kind of song. I think the country voters might appreciate Smoke Break more. I would love to see Storyteller get a nomination for Album, which would be highly deserved in my opinion. However, since the eligibility period includes Chris Stapleton's album as well, she won't have a chance at winning album.

  • #10
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    Also, I wonder if they will ever nominate her for EOTY at the ACMs again. She won twice and since it is fan-voted, they know she will win in any year she is nominated. I think she'll get nominated for EOTY of the year at the CMAs before she gets nominated again at the ACMs. Which of her television appearances would count in the eligibility period? I feel like the Concert for Valor and the U2 Red Day concert are out of the eligibility period? Since Nov 2014-Spring 2015 she wasn't on tv much with the pregnancy, she didn't have a whole lot of tv appearances (other than award shows) in the eligibility period did she? The Sinatra tribute will unfortunately be outside of eligibility.

  • #11
    Ultimate Carrie Fan jptexas's Avatar
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    ACMs in a nutshell, Miranda wins FVOTY. Irrelevant.
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  • #12
    Ultimate Carrie Fan Zman312's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kizmet311 View Post
    Also, I wonder if they will ever nominate her for EOTY at the ACMs again. She won twice and since it is fan-voted, they know she will win in any year she is nominated. I think she'll get nominated for EOTY of the year at the CMAs before she gets nominated again at the ACMs. Which of her television appearances would count in the eligibility period? I feel like the Concert for Valor and the U2 Red Day concert are out of the eligibility period? Since Nov 2014-Spring 2015 she wasn't on tv much with the pregnancy, she didn't have a whole lot of tv appearances (other than award shows) in the eligibility period did she? The Sinatra tribute will unfortunately be outside of eligibility.
    As long as WME is in control and Sony is weak, Carrie unfortunately will never be nominated for EOTY. They had many chances to nominate her, SoML drew over 18+million viewers. She is credited for giving LIVE musical a chance and yet she was not nominated.

    Miranda will win again for nothing, not her fault the BS in Nashville.

  • #13
    Carrie Guru pklongbeach's Avatar
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    I don't mean to be a downer, but isn't this a bit like the definition of "crazy" when you guys keep setting up the same scenario and expecting different results? Wink!

  • #14
    Carrie Guru pklongbeach's Avatar
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    My "nutshell" analysis is that the country industry, at the moment, is like the titanic. Its huge and its complicated. And based on what we saw at CMA, it is too big to change course before ACM this year. So we can expect to see about the same results. Chris will basically take everything (which is fine with me), and Carrie get another "also ran" moment.

    The only thing this year that will seem almost absurd, is that Ms.Lambert will be nominated and likely win for having no music out at all................

  • #15
    Insane Carrie Fan CarrieAddicted's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tgbrinker View Post
    Keeping my hopes low.

    My prediction: Carrie gets a nomination Female Vocalist and for Music Video of the Year - Little Toy Guns.

    That's it.
    She'll get her basic nominations: Female and Album of the Year. That's it.
    Not even Video this time, I'd assume.

    And she'll lose out to Miranda and Chris, respectively.

  • #16
    Insane Carrie Fan CarrieAddicted's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jptexas View Post
    ACMs in a nutshell, Miranda wins FVOTY. Irrelevant.
    NO ONE outside of the country community cares about ACM and CMA awards.

    Totally irrelevant awards.

    Next.

  • #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by pklongbeach View Post
    My "nutshell" analysis is that the country industry, at the moment, is like the titanic. Its huge and its complicated. And based on what we saw at CMA, it is too big to change course before ACM this year. So we can expect to see about the same results. Chris will basically take everything (which is fine with me), and Carrie get another "also ran" moment.

    The only thing this year that will seem almost absurd, is that Ms.Lambert will be nominated and likely win for having no music out at all................
    I just want to disagree with one point. Chris Stapleton. A total unknown sweeping the awards. The ACMs can change course, as the CMAs did in some places, but it's up to them and the labels. It's possible but they have to decide. But I don't why anyone expects anything different for Carrie either.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zman312 View Post
    As long as WME is in control and Sony is weak, Carrie unfortunately will never be nominated for EOTY. They had many chances to nominate her, SoML drew over 18+million viewers. She is credited for giving LIVE musical a chance and yet she was not nominated.

    Miranda will win again for nothing, not her fault the BS in Nashville.
    Yep, WME still has too much power.
    terilyn likes this.

  • #19
    Carrie Guru pklongbeach's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by adam1995 View Post
    I just want to disagree with one point. Chris Stapleton. A total unknown sweeping the awards. The ACMs can change course, as the CMAs did in some places, but it's up to them and the labels. It's possible but they have to decide. But I don't why anyone expects anything different for Carrie either.
    Chris' situation is a bit different. and it does feel like he is a total unknown coming out of no where. But if you read up, he is not. He is very well known within the industry, and his talent and success are well documented. So a solo release, and one as good as this, is going to get that immediate approval.
    He is also playing with the big dogs. He did not come out of no where.

    Carrie is established. Miranda is established. Both are in camps that basically determine a predictable outcome. Nothing has changed in a while, and based on CMA results, nothing has changed as of now......

    So my point was, that likely nothing will change before ACM.

  • #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by pklongbeach View Post
    Chris' situation is a bit different. and it does feel like he is a total unknown coming out of no where. But if you read up, he is not. He is very well known within the industry, and his talent and success are well documented. So a solo release, and one as good as this, is going to get that immediate approval.
    He is also playing with the big dogs. He did not come out of no where.

    Carrie is established. Miranda is established. Both are in camps that basically determine a predictable outcome. Nothing has changed in a while, and based on CMA results, nothing has changed as of now......

    So my point was, that likely nothing will change before ACM.
    Yes the situation is different, and as a solo artist Chris wasn't well known, but the CMAs could very easily awarded the obvious and same old options they always have. So, my point is they can change how and when they want, just is there a big enough incentive or whatever. Awarding Chris got people talking. Do they feel it's worth awarding Carrie, they must not, even though people would talk about it. They are a strange business, but hey whatever, what does it really mean anyway?
    pklongbeach likes this.


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