HDD Sales Projection, Play On Era, Week #3 (11/23-11/24)
Here is the HDD one-day sales report for next week. Nothing about Carrie. But there are some interesting numbers.
Quote:
MAYER MAJOR AS Q4 BATTLE BEGINS IN EARNEST
Columbia Star in Lead with Norah, Casting Crowns, 50 Cent, Bocelli Up Next
November 18, 2009
Who says John Mayer can’t get stoned and have a #1 album on next Tuesday’s HITS Top 50 Album sales chart?
Not us.
The fourth quarter sprint to the end of the first decade of the 21st century (and what a decade it was) begins in earnest this week and, for battered music retailers, it couldn’t come a moment to soon.
Columbia’s singer/songwriter, full-time Tweeter and tabloid lothario will bow on top next week as his Battle Studies rustles up 275-300k in sales, almost twice as much as his nearest pursuer, according to one-day reports from those hearty few still selling shiny, round discs in their stores instead of flat screen TVs.
Blue Note chanteuse Norah Jones’ The Fall is the next-highest debut at 150-160k, putting her in a four-way logjam with Aftermath/Interscope rapper 50 Cent’s Before I Self-Destruct (whoops, too late), also in its first week, Provident/Reunion Christian act Casting Crows and Decca’s Andrea Bocelli, all in the 140-150k range.
Island/IDJ teen phenom Justin Bieber appears to be poised to debut in the 110-120k neighborhood, a pleasant surprise which L.A. Reid and company have to be delighted with.
19/Jive/JLG American Idol winner Kris Allen’s debut should be between 75-80k, which will make for an interesting comparison when runner-up Adam Lambert’s album drops on Nov. 23.
DGC/Interscope rock gods Them Crooked Vultures, featuring Queens of the Stone Age’s Josh Homme, Foo Fighters’ Dave Grohl and Led Zep’s John Paul Jones, are on target for a total of 70-75k for their bracing, neo-psychedelic blooze-metal mash-up.
J/RMG X Factor winner Leona Lewis’ sophomore album, Echo, should do between 60-65k.
Paul McCartney’s Hear Music/Concord live DVD/CD, Good Evening New York City, is in the 50-55k area, while Interscope act OneRepublic’s Waking Up will arise with 40-45k and Janet Jackson’s A&M greatest hits album looks on track for 35-40k.
The market was up 3% vs. last week, down 21% vs. same week last year and still down 13% year to date. Is it 2010 yet?
Where's Carrie?? Or are they only talking new releases and just threw Bocelli in there?
THe one day sales report usually only discusses new releases so there no need to worry about Carrie not being on the report. Friday morning(or Thursday evening) they will have their weekend update and we should see Carrie there. Probably at #7 if Cary is right that the decrease is only 20-30%.
ETA: Shockingly low numbers for Kris Allen IMO. The Idol juggernaut isn't as dominant as it used to be.
THe one day sales report usually only discusses new releases so there no need to worry about Carrie not being on the report. Friday morning(or Thursday evening) they will have their weekend update and we should see Carrie there. Probably at #7 if Cary is right that the decrease is only 20-30%.
ETA: Shockingly low numbers for Kris Allen IMO. The Idol juggernaut isn't as dominant as it used to be.
not really considering adam's being treated like the winner, he was on the cover of friggin rolling stone and hes gonna b on the AMA's.. lets face it, idol wants him to b the real winner. i like adam tho i just feel bad for kris bc hes such a sweetheart and is getting f**k over
becca T
I feel bad for Leona Lewis and Kris Allen. Very low numbers! I just bought Leona's album and it is fantastic.
Hopefully Carrie can sell between 80k-100k since she has alot of tv appearances this week. Next week with the AMAS, she should do well. Then Black Friday sales, so it is all looking good.
this shows how great carrie's sales were first week. all these big names; leona, kris, john mayer only did close to what she sold and thats in the first week only. some of these names are selling less that what carrie's selling her 2nd or 3rd week out.
i am surprised john mayer still sells so much, tho.
I predict 80K for Carrie. Then hopefully next week she can shoot up to 125K again. I hope for her to have sold 1-1.3 million by the end of the year. I hope this album can go 2X platinum by the time it's life is over. It really is a great album.
I think the drop is going to be in the 30%-40% range. I've just gone over to pulse and lot of the big acts lately have dropped about that much going into the 3rd week.
I hope Kris can get to 100K. And look no further than 50 Cent and Norah Jones -- both who (I believe) had 1 million opening weeks before -- to see how the music industry has changed.
Woww, I really thought that Norah Jones would sell more than that. What a weak economy right now. Kris's numbers are depressing, not because I was expecting more (those numbers are actually a little above my expectations) but because he's so being given the short end of the stick. It's like his management didn't even care who won Idol... they were going to promote Adam a billion times more anyway.
As for Carrie, I'm guessing she'll be around 80,000 next week. That would put her around #8 or #9 on the chart.
Sales are down 21% from last year. That is a pretty big sign of the times.
Carrie looks great.
Album sounds fantastic.
I would have hoped for another upbeat title for Carrie's #2, but you guys are probably right that people will be in the mood for somethng more sentimental.
Also, I think her team looks at what other artists are releasing to make sure there is a good mix of slow/fast titles on the radio.
I am gotta give TH everything I've got.
Keeper of Carrie's Kindheartedness & Audition Song "I Can't Make You Love Me"
Thanks: 52
Thanked 42 Times in 19 Posts
Join Date: Feb 2005
Kris Allen's numbers have been revised to 85k-90k.
I expected him to sell 80K, since his fanbase is kinda like Jordin's. She sold 115K 2 years ago, so 80K is about right, in line with the declining album sales trend.
Kris Allen's numbers have been revised to 85k-90k.
I expected him to sell 80K, since his fanbase is kinda like Jordin's. She sold 115K 2 years ago, so 80K is about right, in line with the declining album sales trend.
I really liked Kris on AI. Like his debut single a lot - hear it on the radio too - and I rarely listen to a station that isn't country. I have no idea what his numbers will be but I did pick up a copy of his cd for my daughter. I haven't listened to it because she is at college BUT I was listening to Kidd Kraddock (a dj from my old stomping grounds in Dallas) on Tuesday (he is syndicated all of America now) and he was saying that he was pleasantly surprised at just how good Kris's cd is. He also mentioned that Kris wrote most of his stuff & was really involved and he was impressed with that too. That made me happy because years ago he was pretty mean to Carrie (Kelly is from near Dallas & was on his show a lot & I believe a hometown story to be proud of). I was thinking about buying another Kris cd but right now my cd $ has been directed to Play On so I can share the magic as gifts!
Can I just say WOW to Carrie & PO's opening week numbers? I was a little disappointed because it is such a great cd but after reading the last 2 weeks reports I am so happy for Carrie. CD sales aren't what they used to be & I guess that every LEGAL cd purchase should be celebrated since it seems so many feel like it is ok to ILLEGALLLY download. I personally believe that it is theft - not just to the artist but to the songwriter and even the receptionist at the label. Everyone is effected with decreased sales and the little guy is usually easier to let go.
The annual onslaught of big album releases has begun in earnest as a bevy of superstar acts are in the hunt for high debuts on next week's Billboard 200 chart.
John Mayer is on track to debut at No. 1 with "Battle Studies," which could sell somewhere between 275,000 and 300,000 copies by week's end on Sunday (Nov. 22), according to industry sources. It will be the singer/songwriter's second topper, following "Heavier Things" in 2003. "Heavier" bowed in the penthouse with 317,000 copies. Mayer's last studio set, "Continuum," entered the chart at No. 2 with 300,000 in 2006.
Mayer will likely lead a parade of who's-who in music next week on the chart, as another nine albums are on track to debut inside the top 20. Next in line could be Casting Crowns' "Until the Whole World Hears," with possibly as much as 175,000 copies. After that, 50 Cent's "Before I Self Destruct" and Norah Jones' "The Fall" are vying for the third-highest debut, as each are estimated to sell around 150,000 copies.
Tween sensation Justin Bieber's debut album, "My World," could shift 100,000 copies while "American Idol" winner Kris Allen may see his debut effort move approximately 90,000 copies. Rock supergroup Them Crooked Vultures seems on track to sell about 75,000 with its first effort and Leona Lewis' second album, "Echo," may sell 50,000 to 60,000, as will Paul McCartney's new live set "Good Evening New York City."
As for the big-selling holdover titles on next week's list, the largest will be Andrea Bocelli's "My Christmas," which should sell another 100,000 copies. So far in two weeks, it has moved 285,000 copies.
Next week's chart competes with the Billboard 200 in 2008 when Beyonce's "I Am ... Sasha Fierce" blew in with 482,000 copies and Nickelback's "Dark Horse" galloped into the runner-up slot with 326,000 copies. All told, the tally greeted six debuts in the top 10 and each of the top seven sets surpassed 100,000 copies.
Nielsen SoundScan's sales tracking week, as reflected in Billboard's sales charts, runs from Monday through Sunday of each week. Next week's album charts will be revealed on Nov. 25 and will reflect data through the week ending Nov. 22.
__________________
Fame is just a magnifying glass on who you already are, so if you can hold on to who you already are, you will continue to be really brilliant. You're doing a great job! - Oprah to Carrie
Linear Mode
