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rules and season 4 in CU Times folder--naco

Season One: The First Shocker

Let’s our look back at Season One with the basic numbers. The first table has the average and median of the song ages from the start to finish of each contestant’s Idol stay. The second table has the average and median of the finalists, top 5, and top four collectively.
Contestant Average Median
Kelly Clarkson 22.15 30
Justin Guarini 24.08 28
Nikki McKibbin 22 19.5
Tamyra Grey 34 30
RJ Helton 32 32
Christina Christian 37.2 36
Ryan Starr 37.5 34.5
AJ Gil 23.67 33
Ejay Day 20.5 20.5
Jim Verraros 35 35
Average Median
All finalists 27.39 30
Top 5 25.82 29
Top 4 24.84 25.5

As far as song ages go, the first Idol season already showed some of the trends that would show up in later seasons. For example, Nikki McKibbin’s ability to survive multiple bottom groups was helped by the fact that more often than not, she was picking the younger songs than the rest of the field. Particularly near the end of the season, Kelly Clarkson was doing much of the same thing.

However, the producers had a hand in that drop too. TPTB gave the top four the music of the 80s and 90s. McKibbin picked two songs with ages in the single digits, pushing that week’s song ages to an average of 13.25 years and a median of 14.5. Four “original” songs in the finale also drove down the numbers (average of 7.67, median of 0). Beyond that, though, the season was downright geriatric: save for Top 4 week (songs of the 80s and 90s), every other finals episode hit the 30s (both average and median).

The big revelation of the season, however, is Tamyra Gray’s exit. She holds the dubious distinction of being the first big “shock” boot in the franchise’s history. However, looking at the numbers, maybe it shouldn’t have been. Here’s the numbers for the top four up to Tamyra’s exit:
Contestant Average Median
Kelly Clarkson 26.875 34.5
Justin Guarini 30.5 33
Nikki McKibbin 23.375 21
Tamyra Grey 34 30

Hmmm… a “favorite” contestant picking older songs, booted “before their time” - but that favorite just happening to be consistently picking older songs than everyone else? It’s something we’ll see over and over again. Tamyra was the first, but she won’t be the last.

If this proves one thing, it’s that most “shocks”… aren’t. Conventional wisdom is frequently wrong, and it’s as true in the Idolsphere as it is Out There.

Nikki McKibbin’s surprising survival is something of a corollary. It’s worth remembering that the early Idol seasons weren’t exactly known for depth of talent - particularly in Season One. Thus, any small factor in the votes could help. McKibbin’s apparent preference for younger songs was just that. Whatever its size, it was enough to keep her in for longer than vocals alone probably merited.

Season Two: Age Doesn’t Matter - This Time
Contestant Average Median
Ruben Studdard 27.39 29
Clay Aiken 25.84 29
Kimberley Locke 28.8 27
Josh Gracin 20.5 25.5
Trenyce 18.91 17
Carmen Rasmusen 18.63 18.5
Kim Caldwell 20.5 18
Rickey Smith 23 22
Corey Clarke 26 24.5
Julia deMato 24.25 27
Charles Grigsby 26.67 25
Vanessa Olivarez 30 30
Average Median
All finalists 24.2 25
Top 5 24.93 28
Top 4 25.97 28

All told, the Season 2 finalists did have a knack for picking younger songs, as the numbers indicate. It didn’t hurt that three themes with newer songs occurred relatively early in the finals: movie hits (top 11), country rock (top 11), and Billboard #1 hits (top 8). All had averages and medians below 20.

Incredibly, those weren’t even the youngest episodes of the season: Diane Warren night came in with an average of 6.5 and a median of 4 - making it one of the youngest episodes ever in Idol history. From then on, though, it was all downhill as far as song ages go.

To be honest, though, song age didn’t matter much this season at all. There wasn’t really anyone who stood out for singing old or new. True, you did have a trio of singers who all ended their Idol stays with medians below 20, but in context it doesn’t mean much. Everyone was singing, by Idol standards at least, pretty young.

Carmen Rasmusen’s extended survival might be a marginal case of younger songs helping someone survive, but it’s marginal at best. There were other factors in play then; song age wasn’t a deciding factor. (Rasmusen’s actual age may well have had more to do with it.)

Season 3: Opposites Year
Contestant Average Median
Fantasia Barrino 27.78 25.5
Diana DeGarmo 27.11 25
Jasmine Trias 29.47 29
LaToya London 29.92 28.5
George Huff 31.18 32
John Stevens 32.13 31
Jennifer Hudson 22.5 20
Jon Peter Lewis 34.57 33
Camile Velasco 28.8 31
Amy Adams 21.25 20
Matt Rogers 22 26
Leah LaBelle 27 32
Average Median
All finalists 28.46 29
Top 5 28.81 28
Top 4 28.4 28

It really was a different kind of age that determined the “storyline”, as it were. Six of the finalists were under 20 - something that will probably never happen again in Idol history. As for the songs themselves, though… they weren’t that young. (One of Idol’s eternal mysteries is why some young singers keep insisting on singing songs way older than they are. See: Jordin Sparks and David Archuleta.)

By almost all measures, Season 3 produced songs older than the two that had gone before it. Four seasons later, Season 3 is still pretty solidly in the bottom half of all seasons by age. Only Seasons 5 and 7 consistently score lower - attributable to Taylor Hicks in the first case, and weeks of silly themes in the latter.

As for individual contestants, however, well… the rules weren’t just ignored; they were turned around more often than not. Take Amy Adams. Her average at the time of 21.25 was second only to Jasmine Trias; her median of 20 was tied for first with Trias. Despite that, though, America sent her home. Oops.

A few weeks later Jennifer Hudson was sent home in similar circumstances. If anything, it was worse: she had the lowest average and median age of everyone else up to that point. Ouch. Most rules have an exception, and Season 3 was the exception to end all exceptions.


Season 5: Confused? So Are We
Contestant Average Median
Taylor Hicks 31.4 33
Katharine McPhee 31.45 33
Elliott Yamin 34.35 35
Chris Daughtry 20.79 17.5
Paris Bennett 23 18.5
Kellie Pickler 26.7 23
Ace Young 21.78 18
Bucky Covington 21.75 22
Mandisa 23.71 21
Lisa Tucker 25.33 30.5
Kevin Covais 31.2 35
Melissa McGhee 15.5 16.5
Average Median
All finalists 27.13 28
Top 5 29.01 30
Top 4 30.03 33

Taylor Hicks will probably be the most unique winner in Idol history for all eternity. Whether that’s a good thing or a bad thing, well… everyone has their own take on that. What is indisputable, however, is that he left his mark on the Idol age chart.

There’s not much about Season Five we didn’t say back then. If there’s any lesson from Season Five, it’s that song age may be more important - and predictive - of post-Idol success. After all, Hicks and Katharine McPhee both made it to the finale despite posting high song ages - and were largely overshadowed by the much more contemporary Chris Daughtry.

There is a lesson to be found, though, in the success of Hicks despite his geriatric song choices. Hicks was picking older songs, true, but he was doing it very deliberately - as part of his style, as it were. The lesson is: if you pick older songs, you have to do it in the context of a greater Idol strategy - as Hicks did, and as Brooke White just did in the last season. What you cannot do is use older songs willy-nilly, and not have the strategy or image to boot.

Season Six: How Low Can You Go?
Contestant Average Median
Jordin Sparks 22.53 20
Blake Lewis 17.79 12
Melinda Doolittle 33.81 35
Lakisha Jones 28.69 29
Chris Richardson 17 8
Phil Stacey 23.36 17
Sanjaya Malakar 37.33 40
Haley Scarnato 28.5 22
Gina Glocksen 28.43 32
Chris Sligh 18 17.5
Stephanie Edwards 26.4 31
Brandon Rogers 31.75 32
Average Median
All finalists 25.42 24
Top 5 23.94 21
Top 4 25.07 26

As far as song ages go, Season Six really had both ends of the spectrum. Blake Lewis and Chris Richardson both did very well in picking young songs, but the ultimate throwback, Melinda Doolittle, was also in the mix.

Richardson perhaps serves as a good example of how picking young songs can only go so far. No one else had a greater tendency to pick young songs: in all seven seaons, no one else had a median in the single digits. Unfortunately, though, his song-picking ability was not matched by his voice. His WNTS profile gave him only three above average songs - and two of those came on nights that could be kindly described as geriatric.

Melinda Doolittle really represents just how far raw talent can go, even if you pick songs that a sizable chunk of the Idol voting audience has no chance of relating to. Doolittle is one of the best singers, with a rare mix of talent and polish. However, that experience may well have worked against her here. Once set in her “style”, she simply wasn’t able to adapt.

While Blake Lewis wasn’t quite as youth-biased as Richardson, he did have the advantage of being a better musician. Lewis took what could be described as insane risks in his song choice, and his penchant for young songs was just a part of it. Either way, the result was the same: for his fans, Lewis produced a sound that was more appealing and “relevant” to the times. On pure vocals alone, Lewis is probably the worst person who will ever reach the finale. We mean that as a complement, however, as it shows how much song choice played in his path to the finale.

Jordin Sparks is something of an enigma. While her average and median are both second only to Carrie Underwood, what that doesn’t reveal is the fact that she could be medicore or bomb with new songs in a very big way. Going to her WNTS profile, a surprising number of her younger songs were just “okay” - and that doesn’t even factor in the stinkbomb that was Livin’ on a Prayer. Sparks is similar to Bo Bice, in that her number has to be considered as something of a statistical anomaly. It wasn’t picking young songs that helped her - she was probably the most balanced contestant of the top 12 in terms of talent, charisma, and overall appeal. However, given the Season Six mix… that’s not saying much.

The Idol Guy Blog Archive How Old Is This Song? 2.0