Quote:
Originally Posted by Swim4life108
Cary, what is your projection of where she will end up shall this pace stay the same?
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Well, if Carrie can continue this pace through Friday, that will put her at 11.837 million AI's (since AI's are all that matter on the Billboard/R&R chart so I'm going to go by that). That should put her at about #25 already.
Now, it's a little more difficult for Saturday and Sunday because you have to take into account the syndicated Countdown shows, which So Small won't be on yet, since all those shows countdown the Top 40 songs from 2 weeks ago (since it runs 2 weeks late). This will hurt So Small over the weekend.
It's hard to guess, but I think So Small will gain around 1.8 million AI's (that is, if this pace continues) on Saturday, and on Sunday, I expect a smaller gain since most stations play Country Countdown USA (which is the biggest Countdown) on Sunday. I'm going to guess a 1.3-1.4 million AI's gain.
So, if this holds up, that would put its total AI number at the end of the week at around 15 million AI's. This should put So Small at #22 on the Billboard/R&R chart at the very least if these numbers are accurate. Since Mediabase doesn't include the airplay from Sunday, her Mediabase position for the end of the week should be lower, but Billboard/R&R is the important chart.
Cary, what do you think about my estimate?
