Quote:
Originally Posted by jatale
Cary, what can we expect to happen next week? I assume that all the stations that have been holding off on actively playing SS will start to do so then. If that happens, then SS should show another real jump early next week - is this correct? Where do you think SS might rank at the end of next week?
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Well, here are a couple of examples of similar debut weeks and the 2nd week performance. I am using the Mediabase numbers, because I don't have the Billboard/R&R numbers.
Rascal Flatts' Take Me There
Debut - #29 with 959 spins and 9.604 million AIs
2nd Week - #20 with 1891 spins and 13.886 million AIs
Keith Urban's One In A Lifetime
Debut - #23 with 1321 spins and 14.943 million AIs
2nd Week - #13 with 2096 spins and 20.071 million AIs
So Small's debut will fall somewhere in between with about 1200 spins and 11 million AIs, which will position So Small in the low 20s. Notice that in both cases, the 2nd week percentage increase for AIs is smaller for AIs than it is for spins. This occurs mainly because during the debut week, the song got more primetime airplay. During the 2nd week, the airplay will be more evenly distributed over the various timeslots. Also, because the Mediabase week starts with Sunday airplay, the debut week on Mediabase includes only 6 days of airplay. So, on Monday, a full day of airplay is added. After that, we only get the change from the debut week. Taking this into account, we get the following:
2nd Week Gains Breakdown (approximate)
Rascal Flatts' Take Me There
Monday - 160 spins and 1.6 million AIs
Tuesday thru Sunday - 130 spins and 0.45 million AIs
Keith Urban's Once In A Lifetime
Monday - 220 spins and 2.5 million AIs
Tuesday thru Sunday - 90 spins and 0.44 million AIs
So, if So Small follows a similar pattern, it would end week 2 on Mediabase at around 2000 spins and over 15 million AIs. That would probably put So Small at about #19 at the end of next week. On Billboard/R&R, So Small will probably be in a similar position after 2 weeks.