Thread: HDD Sales Projection, Play On Era, Week #3 (11/23-11/24)

Where's Carrie?? Or are they only talking new releases and just threw Bocelli in there?

I think that Play On will be #8 on the Billboard 200 next week and I expect Carnival Ride to chart as well.

Originally Posted by maddkat

Where's Carrie?? Or are they only talking new releases and just threw Bocelli in there?

THe one day sales report usually only discusses new releases so there no need to worry about Carrie not being on the report. Friday morning(or Thursday evening) they will have their weekend update and we should see Carrie there. Probably at #7 if Cary is right that the decrease is only 20-30%.

ETA: Shockingly low numbers for Kris Allen IMO. The Idol juggernaut isn't as dominant as it used to be.

Originally Posted by jimshoe

THe one day sales report usually only discusses new releases so there no need to worry about Carrie not being on the report. Friday morning(or Thursday evening) they will have their weekend update and we should see Carrie there. Probably at #7 if Cary is right that the decrease is only 20-30%.

ETA: Shockingly low numbers for Kris Allen IMO. The Idol juggernaut isn't as dominant as it used to be.

not really considering adam's being treated like the winner, he was on the cover of friggin rolling stone and hes gonna b on the AMA's.. lets face it, idol wants him to b the real winner. i like adam tho i just feel bad for kris bc hes such a sweetheart and is getting f**k over
becca T

I feel bad for Leona Lewis and Kris Allen. Very low numbers! I just bought Leona's album and it is fantastic.

Hopefully Carrie can sell between 80k-100k since she has alot of tv appearances this week. Next week with the AMAS, she should do well. Then Black Friday sales, so it is all looking good.

this shows how great carrie's sales were first week. all these big names; leona, kris, john mayer only did close to what she sold and thats in the first week only. some of these names are selling less that what carrie's selling her 2nd or 3rd week out.

i am surprised john mayer still sells so much, tho.

I predict 80K for Carrie. Then hopefully next week she can shoot up to 125K again. I hope for her to have sold 1-1.3 million by the end of the year. I hope this album can go 2X platinum by the time it's life is over. It really is a great album.

So Carrie will beat 50 Cent, John Mayer, Kris Allen, Leona Lewis, One Republic, Bon Jovi, Glee, Andrea Bocelli, and Norah Jones' first week sales???

Not bad, Carrie.

This makes me feel so much better about Carrie's sales.

So far, Carrie is still the biggest selling Female of the year for Debut Week sales!

She beat Whitney, Norah Jones, Leona, Kelly Clarkson, and many others.

***aside- I love Kelly, Norah, and Leona, so that was not meant as a bash. Just an observation.**

Shocked at how bad the sales are. Really does make carrie's numbers look phenomenal doesn't it?

I think the drop is going to be in the 30%-40% range. I've just gone over to pulse and lot of the big acts lately have dropped about that much going into the 3rd week.

I hope it will be around 80K for Carrie.

I hope Kris can get to 100K. And look no further than 50 Cent and Norah Jones -- both who (I believe) had 1 million opening weeks before -- to see how the music industry has changed.

I'm going to buy another copy this weekend...

Woww, I really thought that Norah Jones would sell more than that. What a weak economy right now. Kris's numbers are depressing, not because I was expecting more (those numbers are actually a little above my expectations) but because he's so being given the short end of the stick. It's like his management didn't even care who won Idol... they were going to promote Adam a billion times more anyway.

As for Carrie, I'm guessing she'll be around 80,000 next week. That would put her around #8 or #9 on the chart.

Sales are down 21% from last year. That is a pretty big sign of the times.
Carrie looks great.
Album sounds fantastic.
I would have hoped for another upbeat title for Carrie's #2, but you guys are probably right that people will be in the mood for somethng more sentimental.
Also, I think her team looks at what other artists are releasing to make sure there is a good mix of slow/fast titles on the radio.
I am gotta give TH everything I've got.

Originally Posted by pklongbeach

Sales are down 21% from last year.

No, it's down 13%. 21% is compared to the same week last year, but you should compare it to the year's sales overall, which is down 13% so far.

Kris Allen's numbers have been revised to 85k-90k.

I expected him to sell 80K, since his fanbase is kinda like Jordin's. She sold 115K 2 years ago, so 80K is about right, in line with the declining album sales trend.

Originally Posted by HuiZ

Kris Allen's numbers have been revised to 85k-90k.

I expected him to sell 80K, since his fanbase is kinda like Jordin's. She sold 115K 2 years ago, so 80K is about right, in line with the declining album sales trend.

I really liked Kris on AI. Like his debut single a lot - hear it on the radio too - and I rarely listen to a station that isn't country. I have no idea what his numbers will be but I did pick up a copy of his cd for my daughter. I haven't listened to it because she is at college BUT I was listening to Kidd Kraddock (a dj from my old stomping grounds in Dallas) on Tuesday (he is syndicated all of America now) and he was saying that he was pleasantly surprised at just how good Kris's cd is. He also mentioned that Kris wrote most of his stuff & was really involved and he was impressed with that too. That made me happy because years ago he was pretty mean to Carrie (Kelly is from near Dallas & was on his show a lot & I believe a hometown story to be proud of). I was thinking about buying another Kris cd but right now my cd $ has been directed to Play On so I can share the magic as gifts!

Can I just say WOW to Carrie & PO's opening week numbers? I was a little disappointed because it is such a great cd but after reading the last 2 weeks reports I am so happy for Carrie. CD sales aren't what they used to be & I guess that every LEGAL cd purchase should be celebrated since it seems so many feel like it is ok to ILLEGALLLY download. I personally believe that it is theft - not just to the artist but to the songwriter and even the receptionist at the label. Everyone is effected with decreased sales and the little guy is usually easier to let go.

http://www.billboard.com/#/news/john...04044363.story

John Mayer Headed To No. 1 On Billboard 200

The annual onslaught of big album releases has begun in earnest as a bevy of superstar acts are in the hunt for high debuts on next week's Billboard 200 chart.

John Mayer is on track to debut at No. 1 with "Battle Studies," which could sell somewhere between 275,000 and 300,000 copies by week's end on Sunday (Nov. 22), according to industry sources. It will be the singer/songwriter's second topper, following "Heavier Things" in 2003. "Heavier" bowed in the penthouse with 317,000 copies. Mayer's last studio set, "Continuum," entered the chart at No. 2 with 300,000 in 2006.

Mayer will likely lead a parade of who's-who in music next week on the chart, as another nine albums are on track to debut inside the top 20. Next in line could be Casting Crowns' "Until the Whole World Hears," with possibly as much as 175,000 copies. After that, 50 Cent's "Before I Self Destruct" and Norah Jones' "The Fall" are vying for the third-highest debut, as each are estimated to sell around 150,000 copies.

Tween sensation Justin Bieber's debut album, "My World," could shift 100,000 copies while "American Idol" winner Kris Allen may see his debut effort move approximately 90,000 copies. Rock supergroup Them Crooked Vultures seems on track to sell about 75,000 with its first effort and Leona Lewis' second album, "Echo," may sell 50,000 to 60,000, as will Paul McCartney's new live set "Good Evening New York City."

As for the big-selling holdover titles on next week's list, the largest will be Andrea Bocelli's "My Christmas," which should sell another 100,000 copies. So far in two weeks, it has moved 285,000 copies.

Next week's chart competes with the Billboard 200 in 2008 when Beyonce's "I Am ... Sasha Fierce" blew in with 482,000 copies and Nickelback's "Dark Horse" galloped into the runner-up slot with 326,000 copies. All told, the tally greeted six debuts in the top 10 and each of the top seven sets surpassed 100,000 copies.

Nielsen SoundScan's sales tracking week, as reflected in Billboard's sales charts, runs from Monday through Sunday of each week. Next week's album charts will be revealed on Nov. 25 and will reflect data through the week ending Nov. 22.