HDD Sales Projections For Carnival Ride (Week 52)

davilas · 10-15-2008, 03:35 PM

I'm not expecting to see CR in the top 50 this week but hope I'm wrong. But HDD just came out with the Kenny projection and I'm a little surprised at it and was wondering what other people think.

Quote:

CHESNEY’S SUN SHINES AT #1
BNA Country Superstar Headed for Top Spot With New Album

October 15, 2008

The fourth quarter has started… Do you know where your superstars are?

First up, BNA country superstar Kenny Chesney follows the Sun to the top spot on the charts, according to one-day sales reports from those retailers not too shell-shocked to return our calls.

Duplicating a strategy first successfully employed by Sugarland, the deluxe edition of Chesney’s Lucky Old Sun is on target for #1 next week, with 180k in sales, give or take, more than enough to overtake Grand Hustle/Atlantic’s T.I., who will probably be #2 with around 100k after two straight weeks leading the Top 50.

Critically acclaimed, but reclusive RCA/RMG Maine roots-rocker Ray LaMontagne’s third album, Gossip in the Grain, distributed through RED, is the week’s other top debut, with a huge iTunes marketshare helping spawn a 50-55k bow.

Interscope U.K. pop-rockers Keane’s Perfect Symmetry looks headed for 40-45k, followed by a pair of Luke Lewis entries in Lost Highway’s Lucinda Williams and Mercury Nashville’s Billy Currington, both pegged between 30-35k.

AC/DC’s Wal-Mart exclusive, Black Ice, on Columbia, hits stores on Monday, but won’t appear on the chart until Oct. 28, a week from Tuesday.

The market was down 14% vs last week, down 23% vs same week last year and still down 12% year-to-date. And you thought the stock market was bad.

I expected higher with Kenny having the #1 song. But some people are saying this is more like the follow up to Be As You Are so maybe the sales were expected to be lower. Plus the economy is bad and it's been barely a year and a month since Kenny released his last album.

sam_vzla · 10-15-2008, 03:58 PM

Well maybe is a "low" number because is the Deluxe Edition, the regular release could sell better.

Suprised by the number? Not really, Kenny's last album is only a year old, the first week sales for that were good (300k something, almost 400k I think) so maybe this deluxe and regular combined could sell something close to that, and so far I have seen that Kenny is more about selling big venues concerts than selling millions of albums.

Chuckerwood · 10-15-2008, 05:27 PM

I think when you keep putting out a massive amount of music that all sounds the same that sooner or later it has to hurt album sales! If you go back in history other than debuts the greatest albums are when the artists go outside the box and take risks.Theres nothing artistic or risky about a regae cowboy going to the beach!!! JMO
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carries1gurl · 10-15-2008, 07:15 PM

well thanks for the update!

teesharky · 10-15-2008, 07:26 PM

That seems very low for kenny. He has tons of fans... and either they are all downloading individual songs on itunes, or-- this is partially related to the economy.

I keep thinking that Carrie's recent excessive low sales are also related to the stock market crisis and the related panic. She has never gone as low as 8,000 before--- so that was pretty bad.

But seeing the difference between the numbers Kenny used to sell, and now, is somewhat sobering. Carrie might not sell more then 300k debut week for her next album if things don't change.

davilas · 10-15-2008, 08:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sam_vzla

Well maybe is a "low" number because is the Deluxe Edition, the regular release could sell better.

Maybe but he's doing the same thing Sugarland did and their first 2 weeks were 314K then 171K. The regular release will probably just help the 2nd week dropoff to be lower.

Quote:

so far I have seen that Kenny is more about selling big venues concerts than selling millions of albums.

I agree with that. Maybe Kenny put out this album so fast to drive his next tours seeing as he just signed that huge deal with AEG Live. That definitely makes him tons more money than album sales ever could.

maria4hitz · 10-15-2008, 08:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by teesharky

I keep thinking that Carrie's recent excessive low sales are also related to the stock market crisis and the related panic. She has never gone as low as 8,000 before--- so that was pretty bad.

But seeing the difference between the numbers Kenny used to sell, and now, is somewhat sobering. Carrie might not sell more then 300k debut week for her next album if things don't change.

Teesharky I don't agree with this, we can't possibly know how many copies carrie's going to sell the first week of her next record, maybe the first single has huge success and she sells 500.000 like CR, but we don't know now. And a 300k first week is not bad either.
And carrie's low sales now are related to many things besides the market crisis, one of them being zero promotion for JAD, but there are many factors. I think it is an amazing song, but i'm not sure it is so "radio friendly" (like they say now). Not every song is destined to be a single. I loooove IKYW, it is my favorite song to hear live because she does such an amazing job with it, but i don't think it could be a single.

eliefares · 10-16-2008, 01:12 AM

his song and album are very bad. What do you expect?
ppl have taste you know!

pklongbeach · 10-16-2008, 08:57 AM

Way to much repetition.
It's like he is just thowing them out there now..
No time for anticipation to kick in.
guess it's just to get new songs to sing for the concert tour, but it feels like no big deal to him, so why would people care either.
His last couple of singles have been very bland.
EWTGTH is just a throw away song for a concert. It's not "single" worthy.

pklongbeach · 10-16-2008, 09:03 AM

With regard to Carries sales, CR has done what it's going to do. I think the promoters are done.
I have not agreed with several of the singles choices but I won't go into that cause I dont like to question Carries people.
All I can say is that I think IKYW had huge potential. and JAD was entirely to polorizing.
In todays economy, nobody wants more bad news about what the Bush administration has caused.
JAD got caught in the cross-fire of an economic war.
I still would like to see it hit #1, but it did not have the resonence some hoped for cause it was to down for radio.

judes · 10-16-2008, 10:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pklongbeach

With regard to Carries sales, CR has done what it's going to do. I think the promoters are done.
I have not agreed with several of the singles choices but I won't go into that cause I dont like to question Carries people.
All I can say is that I think IKYW had huge potential. and JAD was entirely to polorizing.
In todays economy, nobody wants more bad news about what the Bush administration has caused.
JAD got caught in the cross-fire of an economic war.
I still would like to see it hit #1, but it did not have the resonence some hoped for cause it was to down for radio.

Well, I don't agree that JAD hasn't resonated with audiences - on the contrary - check out the over 3 million hits it has already on youtube and the comments are almost all postive for the song and the video , even from women who have lost a loved one in war. And it's going to hit #1 on radio. What more could you ask for? For her to sing it at the CMA's? Yep, she'll probably do that

pklongbeach · 10-16-2008, 11:33 AM

Judes,
I stand corrected.
I just meant some might have been looking for a JTTW level of buzz.

carrie4aus · 10-16-2008, 06:11 PM

I look forward to seeing the AC/DC Numbers when they chart.

"Black Ice" WILL NOT be available on i-tunes and I think a lot of artists and
record execs will be very interested to see the numbers.

teesharky · 10-16-2008, 11:52 PM

I hope ACDC does very well and teaches itunes a lesson. Kid Rock is doing great, without itunes.

I have some distressing news: I went to Walmart today, and there is not a single album there for carrie--- not even for Some hearts. No CR, no SH and not even a Carrie section. It goes from tAylor to Keith Urban, and skips carrie completely.

I get that they are bringing in the new album next week-- but why on earth would they cut out Carrie's whole section, and not stock a single album???

I wish her label could get on these stores... but I am not sure if they have any say in what they put on the shelves. I find it rotten that TS had 3 sections, and Carrie had none.

pklongbeach · 10-17-2008, 09:14 AM

Don't be disheartened.
There has got to be a reason for that.
Carrie is a huge artist. There is no way that they have chosen to simply take her out of circulation. There must be a reason for it. You should ask someone.