HDD Sales Projections for Week 51 - Page 2

davilas · 10-13-2008, 06:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by carrieidol1

I'm also assuming that Carrie's fanbase is a lot more stronger then Faith's. I don't think im too far fetched with this, maybe an increase of about 5,000 more like it...but you have to consider the mass amounts of fans Carrie still has. Carrie's fan surely outnumber Faith's. I think a total of 15,000 copies will sell the week the Xmas songs come out.

Carrie's fans may outnumber Faith's but you're not giving a bunch of factors enough consideration. First of all this isn't something where Carrie fans can shell out a few extra bucks and pick up an EP. They have to buy CR all over again which only the most hardcore fans are going to do especially in the first week when people aren't really shopping for gifts or Christmas music. Second people have to be aware that the rerelease is happening and at this point in time, there's not going to be much promo.

Most of Carrie's fans aren't really intense fans on the boards like you and I are. They're casual fans who might be in a store to buy milk or housewares and maybe they walk by the CD section and say "Oh look Carrie Underwood has an album out. I like So Small and All American Girl so let me pick that up." That kind of fan isn't going to be buying a Christmas bonus EP on a CR rerelease the first week. The best we can hope for with that kind of fan is that they'll notice the rerelease when they're in Walmart shopping for Christmas gifts and buy copies for themselves and for their friends who might like Carrie. That won't kick in until late November and December.

Not all of Carrie's fans celebrate Christmas or want Christmas music. Not all of Carrie's fans no matter how intense can afford to buy CR again especially in these tough economic times.

If you looked at online activity even though CF has tons of members, only a small percentage of that is active every day. Those are the people who will probably go to Walmart and pick up CR with the Christmas EP the first week. I think expecting CR sales to double is setting yourself up for a major disappointment. I hope I'm wrong but I think 500-1000 more sales is more like it and I hope I'M not being too optimistic.

I'm just glad that we're getting to hear Carrie sing some Christmas tunes. Whatever sales comes out of that is gravy.

Jade_kt · 10-13-2008, 06:34 PM

CHART DATE: 10/13/2008
LAST UPDATE: 10/13/2008 16:29:57
NOW IN: 54.02%

LW TW artist / album label power index
1 1 T.I. GRAND HUSTLE/ATLANTIC 87,329
PAPER TRAIL
7 2 KID ROCK ATLANTIC 37,538
ROCK N ROLL JESUS
5 3 METALLICA WARNER BROS. 37,176
DEATH MAGNETIC
-- 4 TIM MCGRAW CURB 36,138
GREATEST HITS, VOL. 3
2 5 JENNIFER HUDSON ARISTA/RMG 36,053
JENNIFER HUDSON
6 6 NE-YO DEF JAM/IDJMG 28,967
YEAR OF THE GENTLEMAN
-- 7 RISE AGAINST DGC/INTERSCOPE 25,213
APPEAL TO REASON
-- 8 SARAH MCLACHLIN ARISTA/RMG 21,189
CLOSER: BEST OF SARAH MCLACHLIN
3 9 ROBIN THICKE STAR TRAK/INTERSCOPE 19,621
SOMETHING ELSE
19 10 RIHANNA DEF JAM/IDJMG 17,557
GOOD GIRL GONE BAD
16 11 JONAS BROTHERS HOLLYWOOD 16,408
A LITTLE BIT LONGER
11 12 JAZMINE SULLIVAN J RECORDS/RMG 15,658
FEARLESS
-- 13 OASIS REPRISE 14,963
DIG OUT YOUR SOUL
-- 14 BOB DYLAN COLUMBIA 13,684
TELL TALE SIGNS-BOOTLEG SERIES 8
24 15 LEONA LEWIS J RECORDS/RMG 13,305
SPIRIT
10 16 YOUNG JEEZY DEF JAM/IDJMG 12,845
RECESSION
26 17 DARIUS RUCKER CAPITOL NASHVILLE 12,649
LEARN TO LIVE
13 18 LIL WAYNE CASH MONEY/UNIV MOTOWN 12,552
THA CARTER III
15 19 DEMI LOVATO HOLLYWOOD 12,184
DON'T FORGET
22 20 SUGARLAND MERCURY NASHVILLE 11,736
LOVE ON THE INSIDE
33 21 MILEY CYRUS HOLLYWOOD 11,492
BREAKOUT
4 22 JAMES TAYLOR HEAR MUSIC/CONCORD 11,076
COVERS
23 23 MAMMA MIA! DECCA 10,653
SOUNDTRACK
34 24 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 10,507
TAYLOR SWIFT
17 25 PUSSYCAT DOLLS INTERSCOPE 10,481
DOLL DOMINATION
-- 26 SENSES FAIL VAGRANT 10,322
LIFE IS NOT A WAITING ROOM
-- 27 TESLA TESLA ELECTRIC 9,991
FOREVER MORE
29 28 JASON MRAZ ATLANTIC 9,806
WE SING WE DANCE WE STEAL THINGS
31 29 KATY PERRY CAPITOL 9,749
ONE OF THE BOYS
9 30 KELLIE PICKLER BNA/SBMG NASHVILLE 9,319
KELLIE PICKLER
35 31 BUCKCHERRY ELEVEN SEVEN MUSIC 8,695
BLACK BUTTERFLY
27 32 NEW KIDS ON THE BLOCK INTERSCOPE 8,615
BLOCK
39 33 NOW 28 CAPITOL 8,559
VARIOUS ARTISTS
43 34 NOW COUNTRY UME/UNIVERSAL NASHVILLE 8,507
NOW COUNTRY
30 35 COLDPLAY CAPITOL 8,260
VIVA LA VIDA
25 36 SLIPKNOT ROADRUNNER 8,197
ALL HOPE IS GONE
18 37 THE GAME GEFFEN 8,133
LAX
32 38 NELLY DERRTY/UNIV MOTOWN 7,225
BRASS KNUCKLES
-- 39 MICHELLE WILLIAMS COLUMBIA 7,194
UNEXPECTED
20 40 JOE KEDAR ENTERAINMENT 6,868
JOE THOMAS NEW MAN
-- 41 WOW HITS 2009 WORD 6,805
VARIOUS ARTISTS
40 42 CAMP ROCK WALT DISNEY RECORDS 6,009
SOUNDTRACK
38 43 ERIC BENET REPRISE 5,460
LOVE & LIFE
36 44 DUFFY MERCURY 5,235
ROCKFERRY
50 45 DISTURBED REPRISE 4,731
INDESTRUCTIBLE
21 46 KINGS OF LEON RCA/RMG 4,672
ONLY BY THE NIGHT
-- 47 NIGHTMARE REVISITED WALT DISNEY RECORDS 4,164
VARIOUS ARTISTS
14 48 ANBERLIN UNIVERSAL REPUBLIC 4,034
NEW SURRENDER
8 49 JACK'S MANNEQUIN SIRE RECORDS 3,897
GLASS PASSENGER
48 50 JESSICA SIMPSON EPIC/COLUMBIA NASHVILLE 3,860
DO YOU KNOW

sam_vzla · 10-13-2008, 06:34 PM

^You beat me lol

I guess we wont see Carrie there this week...

Jade_kt · 10-13-2008, 06:42 PM

Yeah but I think once we get the official numbers I think it will probably be around the same as last week's numbers just maybe a little less.

carrieidol1 · 10-13-2008, 07:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by davilas

Carrie's fans may outnumber Faith's but you're not giving a bunch of factors enough consideration. First of all this isn't something where Carrie fans can shell out a few extra bucks and pick up an EP. They have to buy CR all over again which only the most hardcore fans are going to do especially in the first week when people aren't really shopping for gifts or Christmas music. Second people have to be aware that the rerelease is happening and at this point in time, there's not going to be much promo.

Most of Carrie's fans aren't really intense fans on the boards like you and I are. They're casual fans who might be in a store to buy milk or housewares and maybe they walk by the CD section and say "Oh look Carrie Underwood has an album out. I like So Small and All American Girl so let me pick that up." That kind of fan isn't going to be buying a Christmas bonus EP on a CR rerelease the first week. The best we can hope for with that kind of fan is that they'll notice the rerelease when they're in Walmart shopping for Christmas gifts and buy copies for themselves and for their friends who might like Carrie. That won't kick in until late November and December.

Not all of Carrie's fans celebrate Christmas or want Christmas music. Not all of Carrie's fans no matter how intense can afford to buy CR again especially in these tough economic times.

If you looked at online activity even though CF has tons of members, only a small percentage of that is active every day. Those are the people who will probably go to Walmart and pick up CR with the Christmas EP the first week. I think expecting CR sales to double is setting yourself up for a major disappointment. I hope I'm wrong but I think 500-1000 more sales is more like it and I hope I'M not being too optimistic.

I'm just glad that we're getting to hear Carrie sing some Christmas tunes. Whatever sales comes out of that is gravy.

You're probably right, but I personally think you are underestimating. Not by a lot but I do think 5,000 copies isn't too far fetched. Yeah there are only about 1,000 active users here, but some are buying more than one. I'm buying three, I'm sending two to the troops where my bother and sister in law are right now. I'm sending one to each of them...I'm sure i'm not the only one buying multiple copies. You are right about the money situation, not too many people are going to be willing to buy an album they already have with just a few bonus songs, but there are defintealy some of us. There are also hundreds and possibly thousands of fans out there that don't use the fan boards but are still hard-core fans. My Grandmother for example has it in her agenda to go out after work that day to buy a copy. I'm sure she isn't the only one. lol. So my point is yeah we are the main fans of Carrie's but she has many others including people who will both buy and not buy the album with the bonus. I think 500 copies is way off, I mean there are definately more than 500 people going to buy the bonus, never mind more than 1 copy of it. I think 3-5,000 is a nice estimate. I forgot to mention all the international fans who are having people buy for them to do a trade off through the mail. Here and at puls music boards there are quite a few. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe your wrong; I just can't imagine new Carrie Underwood Christmas songs not selling.

Awsomecarrie · 10-13-2008, 07:31 PM

Boo Hoo.

carrieidol1 · 10-13-2008, 07:35 PM

Boo Hoo what? the crappy sales? lol

Chuckerwood · 10-13-2008, 10:01 PM

Im not a rocket scientist but i guarantee Carrie will more than double her sales in the first week of re-release with a real chance of 30000 ! As much as i respect some of you guys your way underestimating Carries fanbase and the power of Walmart. 500 to 1000 extra copies is just silly give me a break they will sell that many in a couple of hours on tuesday! We will see whos right but i agree with one thing you said Davilas no matter how many it sells just getting some new Carrie x-mas music is more than worth it!!
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thunder92 · 10-13-2008, 10:08 PM

^ehh maybe
i guess well see but either way its new music and its goin to help her sales
even if it is just a little

rainbow1 · 10-13-2008, 11:02 PM

I ordered 4 copies....and an email says they are on the way!

Jade_kt · 10-14-2008, 12:41 AM

^^^I'm buying two so that is 6 copies already between the two of us.....

hjj · 10-14-2008, 02:07 AM

I think this CR w/ Christmas songs might pull some of those 7 Mil people that bought SH but not CR into buying it now, hopefully.

Jade_kt · 10-14-2008, 02:12 AM

^^^hahaha.....I hope so too.

carriebest · 10-14-2008, 09:18 AM

it's easy.
just don't be worry.
CARNIVAL RIDE'S SALES WILL BOOST UP, BECAUSE WE WANT TO BUY IT.
JUST A DREAM WILL BE NUMBER 1 NEXT WEEK AS LONG AS WE KEEP REQUESTING ON RADIO.
AND TELL EVERY PERSON WE MEET TO BUY CARNIVAL RIDE BECAUSE IT IS THE BEST ALBUM OF THIS DECADE.

Number_One_Carrie_Fan · 10-14-2008, 11:12 AM

I have to agree that I don't think it'll boost sales THAT much. I'm a diehard Carrie fan and I'm personally having trouble swallowing the fact that I have to repurchase an album I already have just to get five new songs when I just don't have much money. Whether I'll buy it the first week depends on whether Wal-Mart has a good sale price on it for the first week. And I definitely won't be buying multiple copies.