HDD Sales Projection for Carnival Ride (week 28)

cary78663 · 04-30-2008, 12:35 PM

Here's the one-day sales report from HDD. I highlighted the interesting passage whiich talks about Madonna's last album beating out SH in its 1st week. It also shows that when the dust settled SH beat out COADF by like 4 to 1 in US sales and is likely close to COADF in worldwide sales.

Quote:

MADONNA WANNABE #1

Hard Candy Will Bow on Top, Lyfe Jennings, The Roots, Def Leppard and Portishead Also Debut

April 30, 2008

Madonna will leave Warner Bros., the only label she’s ever known, with a bang.

Her final studio album for the Bunny, Hard Candy, is on track to sell between 275-300k, which will handily end Mariah Carey’s two-week reign with E=MC2, according to one-day sale reports from those retailers still standing around this great country of ours.

The Material Gal has one more album, a greatest hits collection, to go before splitting for a long-term deal with concert promoter Live Nation. The album’s her first since 2005’s Confessions on a Dance Floor, which sold more than 8 million worldwide. In the U.S., it debuted at #1, selling 351k copies in its first week, taking the top spot from Carrie Underwood’s Some Hearts. In its second week, Confessions on a Dance Floor sold 210k copies and slipped to #4 with a 39% sales decrease. To date, the album has sold over 1.7 million copies in the U.S.

Columbia R&B star Lyfe Jennings’ Lyfe Change, his third album, is on track to sell between 75-80k, which should be good for a Top 5 bow, fueled by the single, “Never Never Land.” His last disc, 2006’s The Phoenix, debuted at #2 and went on to sell 450k.

Veteran Def Jam rappers The Roots return with Rising Down, their first since 2006’s Game Theory, with a first-week sales number in the 50-60k range

Hair metal mainstays Def Leppard’s Universal album Songs from the Sparkle Lounge is doing better than expected, thanks to the band’s appearance on last night’s Dancing with the Stars, where they performed their new single, “Nine Lives,” which features Tim McGraw. One-day sales estimates peg their total at 45-50k. The band’s U.S. tour with Styx and REO Speedwagon is already underway.

Island Records trip-hop pioneers Portishead return with their first studio album in a decade, and third overall, the cleverly dubbed Third, on track for an impressive 40-45k in sales after their critically acclaimed performance at Coachella last weekend.

Tom Petty’s Mudcrutch album on Warner Bros. looks set for 25-30k after a string of intimate performances with his one-time Gainesville, FL, bandmates at the Troubadour in L.A., his old stomping grounds.

Epic Records' SoCal atmospheric pop-rockers Augustana’s Can’t Love, Can’t Hurt is on target for 20-25k

The market was down 8% vs last week, down 11% vs same week last year and now down 11% year-to-date…. as Hollywood continues to burn outside HITS’ Sunset and Vine headquarters.

Cps235 · 04-30-2008, 04:57 PM

Cool!Thanks for the update Cary!

robinannhunt · 04-30-2008, 04:59 PM

Here we go again, lol.

davilas · 04-30-2008, 06:15 PM

I just realized, didn't Phil Stacey's album come out this week? Looks like his first week numbers won't be that great.

carries1gurl · 05-01-2008, 03:35 PM

thanks for this cary!

clh_hilary · 05-02-2008, 08:41 AM

I expected a higher first week for Madonna...

jptexas · 05-02-2008, 08:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by clh_hilary

I expected a higher first week for Madonna...

Me too. I'm wondering if the fact that sales are way down, even when it comes to big artists releasing a new cd, that Shania Twain is holding back on releasing a new cd. It's been 6 years since the release of UP. Out of sight, out of mind. I used to follow her career, but she seems to be keeping her fans in the dark about what she's up to.

teesharky · 05-02-2008, 10:25 AM

Apparently madonna hasn't done any promo yet on tv for her album- but is slated to do SNL, letterman, everything- -in the next few weeks.

Phil Stacey's album did come out and it is very good. I try to support one or 2 idols every year so I bought phil's album yesterday. He has a very clear voice- and it records nicely. There are a few really good songs on the album, including his lead single which I like alot. There are some fluff filler songs on the album like always- but overall, it is very good. Not really pure country but more pop-country or even southern rock country-- but it works.

comolaamapolaflor5285 · 05-02-2008, 10:56 AM

but don't forget Shania still gets decent catalog sales so it wouldn't hurt if she waited to release a new disc

and Sh is still selling over 7k a week close to 2 1/2 years of release in 13 days so she'll be just over 6.4 million by that point

cary78663 · 05-02-2008, 01:46 PM

From HDD:

Quote:

WEAKEND CHARTS: MADONNA WILL ROLL IN BATTLE OF DIVAS

Will Top Both Mariah Carey and Leona Lewis, But 25k’ll Get You Into Top 10

May 2, 2008

Hard Candy is sweet indeed.

Madonna’s final studio album for Warner Bros. before embarking on her deal with promoter Live Nation will debut at #1 on next week’s HITS Album Sales chart with a total of between 270-290k.

She’s easily the topper in a three-way battle of the dueling divas which also includes Mariah Carey’s previously #1 Island/IDJ album E=MC2 at 85-90k and J/Syco Music newcomer Leona Lewis’ Spirit at 80k.

Hard Candy is actually one of six newcomers in the Top 10, which would ordinarily be good news. Unfortunately, it takes a little under 30k in sales to get there.

Columbia R&B star Lyfe Jennings will bow in the Top 5 with between 70-75k for his third album Lyfe Change, as will The Roots’ Def Jam album, Rising Down, with a first-week number that appears to be between 65-70k.

Def Leppard’s Universal album Songs from the Sparkle Lounge is up next with 50-55k, boosted perhaps by their appearance on Dancing with the Stars this week.

Island trip-hop pioneers Portishead are back with Third, their first studio album in 10 years, showing surprising strength at 45-50k, good for a Top 10 debut.

SBMG/Commercial Music Group’s Now 27 keeps going along at 28-30k, followed by Big Machine/Universal Republic country star Taylor Swift (26-30k).

Reprise’s Tom Petty reunion of his early Florida band Mudcrutch rides some critical kudos and a series of intimate performances at the Troubadour to a bow inside the Top 10 at 26-28k, where it will duke it out with Rhino’s Juno soundtrack.

teesharky · 05-02-2008, 05:12 PM

uh....when is ts ever going to start falling off?? It is getting really annoying.

Awsomecarrie · 05-02-2008, 06:00 PM

Looks like she'll be back at #1 on Country album charts as well.

Volcomlvr87 · 05-02-2008, 06:21 PM

Quote:

Madonna’s final studio album for Warner Bros. before embarking on her deal with promoter Live Nation will debut at #1 on next week’s HITS Album Sales chart with a total of between 270-290k.

I was sure her numbers would be higher than that. "4 Minutes" seems to be doing great and got alot of buzz.

countrymusic06 · 05-02-2008, 06:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by teesharky

uh....when is ts ever going to start falling off?? It is getting really annoying.

I'm pretty sure people were saying the same thing about Carrie when she had singles across multiple formats.

Nothing we can really say...nothing we can really do, except hope that something crosses to pop or whatever. If nothing happens, well I'm guessing we'll have to settle for 3x platinum- which is good, but could be better.

However, hopefully they will release the CD in other countries later this year, and actually promote it. Maybe we can squeeze 1-2 million worldwide. Just imagine if they put the effort they are putting in Leona Lewis into pushing Carrie into new markets.